Get ready to make next 200% in tail stocks

One of the perennial problems of value investors like me is my urge not to pay up , while the world is different now to the one when I started picking up 20 percent annual growers at 10 PE or less in 2009-10 there were few stocks  in my journey which always looked expensive whenever I have evaluated them Kotak Bank , HDFC , NESTLE just to name a few

Prof Bakshi has a superb article why quality is almost always undervalued from 2013 you can read it here

“More profitable companies today tend to be more profitable companies tomorrow.Although it gets reflected in their future stock prices, the market systematically underestimates this today, making their shares a relative bargain – diamonds in the rough”

How can someone overcome this dilemma in a practical manner ?

This is where the concept of tail stocks comes into picture. The practical implementation can be done in 3 easy steps

  1. Buy 1 stock each of your desired quality company that you would love to add to your portfolio and valuation is the only reason holding you back
  2. Create a google spreadsheet like this
  3. Any time the stock action changes to “BUY” in the
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Score Card / Premium will not be taking any new subscribers in the current format from 25th June 2020. We are working on a new pay as you like and ad supported model to be unveiled in 2022
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For existing patrons there is no change – You will continue to get updates on score card changes / book reviews / Annual report reviews / international ideas in your current format, however you … Read the rest

Neuland Labs – Forging Ahead

Last year we did an opening note on Neuland Labs and how the company is moving up in Pharma value chain, The company recently announced its full year revenue and the results are inline with our expectations

CMS segment outgrew other segments and now has ~28% share of total revenues up from ~26% last year, overall all segments had a good year with topline growing by more than 20%

If you peek under hood even more positive aspect was growth of development projects in CMS segment as they move from development to commercial stage the growth could sustain

Source : Investor Presentation

Margin trajectory is also in right direction, management indicated in concalls that they had some one offs in Q4 and are still in investment phase for Unit III

Updating our last year expectation vs Actuals
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5 years of Score Card

A friend suggested to keep track record of companies bought and researched didn’t knew that small request would age into 5 years

Some hits and missed but overall faith in active investing remains

 

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Is real estate turning a corner?

Below are some con-call highlights from last quarter of select companies,

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    • my notes & observations are in red
    • big takeaways are in bold

Oberoi Realty Ltd
Vikas Oberoi
Before I begin, I want to share a few quick updates with you. In Q3 we achieved our highest ever pre – sales number for a non-launch quarter <Builder after builder would repeat this statement > The gross booking value stood in excess of 1000 crores, as you would have all seen, the numbers were strongly supported by all our projects. Borivali continued to outperform with 100 units being booked in this quarter and Eternia crossed the 1000 crores booking value milestone

 

I also very strongly feel that there will be a large amount of consolidation and I feel
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What’s the value of Bitcoin

Bitcoin recently hit a market cap of 1 trillion USD – Yes with a “T” a single coin was worth more than USD 57,000 as recently as 21-Feb-21

I have been a firm critic of Bitcoin using largely below rationale

 

 

but is there something that I am missing?

Most of the stuff on internet/twitter is very price driven, the day price appreciates the more noise is made that day without any meaningful analysis on this phenomenon.

After some digging came across a really useful piece that analyses the crypto landscape with data and objectively

CFA Institute has put a very detailed report on Crypto Assets for Investment Professionals while the whole report is fantastic, I will share some of my key learnings from the report. You can access the full report here

  1. Whether we like it or not – Crypto is here to stay 

As the cryptomarket enters its second decade, one thing is clear: Crypto and blockchains are not going away. 2 major financial institutions, such as Fidelity Investments and CME Group, are heavily involved; large endowments, such as those of Harvard University, Yale University, and Stanford University, are investing, alongside such hedge fund legends as Paul Read the rest

Why stock markets are rising?

It’s 2021, the COVID vaccines are rolling out and the stock markets are making new highs. Here are some charts making sense of this new bull run

India’s overall disposable income has increased 2X in last 8 years

 

But we are not buying more cars

 

 

In a double whammy covid-19 struck, now we have rising disposable income > lockdown means no spending > leading to huge money left in bank accounts

 

This new saved money was searching for returns and the fixed income instruments have become less attractive to savers as interest rates have gone down

so these folks opened equity demat accounts in big numbers – CDSL reported their best ever year of account openings

 

So it is the new money driving markets?

Source

Sure it is but regionally we are much more attractive comparative to other countries for foreign fund flow

with inflows outdoing their previous highs made in 2013

so

  • Low interest rate
  • High retail participation and
  • FII flows

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Book Notes – The Art of Thinking Clearly

The art of thinking clearly by Rolf Dobelli is one of the best books to sharpen the psychological side of decision making. I loved the book here are my notes

Use below biases as a checklist when making investment or other decisions

***

It is much more common that we overestimate our knowledge than that we underestimate it. Similarly, the danger of losing something stimulates us much more than the prospect of making a similar gain.

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Why do we act so irrationally? Because the downside to such behaviour is not always apparent. In the financial markets, things are clear: a financial option on a security always costs something. There is no such thing as a free option,
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Luck vs Skills

What could be more exhilarating than to participate in a bull market in which the rewards to owners of businesses become gloriously uncoupled from the plodding performances of the businesses themselves. Unfortunately, however, stocks can’t outperform businesses indefinitely, Bull markets can obscure mathematical laws, but they cannot repeal them.

Warren Buffett

The pandemic and financial markets recovery in 2020 is nothing short of miracle. No body expected it except few folks on twitter who somehow manage to get all calls right.

Michael Mauboussin’s in his book, The Success Equation gave us a very easy test to identify whether an activity involves luck or skill

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Do Nothing?

2009

Like many MBA Business schools , my alma mater also ran an internal competition to find the best manager of a particular batch, what followed was a series of games and situations at the end of which you have your winner.

One game was to make most money in stock markets in a day – A classic day trading game, all of us were given virtual INR 100,000 and a virtual demat account, the aim was to finish with highest balance possible at the end of the day.

There were many finance wizards at my place and a variety of strategies were employed

  1. One friend read up all the latest Macro and Micro (company specific news) to make calculated bets on items that will move due to news
  2. My strategy was to run some technical analysis (which till date I have limited understanding) and find stocks that can move with momentum
  3. Another friend switched on CNBC 18 at 7:30 am to get hot picks from news Anchor to make his day trading gains
  4. My neighbour in next room had a wait strategy he wanted to see what others are doing and then copy their trades

Next morning – The … Read the rest