Tag: Ajanta Pharma

Ajanta Pharma – Pivoting its fortunes

Let me refresh your memory from this 2015 chart on how Ajanta pharma, Granules India and Suven Life Sciences were operating in different sections of the industry

Five years and things have turned on their head in 2020

  • Ajanta Pharma – Started selling in regulated markets
  • Granules – Set upfront retail shop in the US
  • Suven – Has moved into API manufacturing at scale

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each of them had their own niche and slowly build complementary capabilities. Nothing depicts the pivot made by Ajanta pharma better than below chart

 

from no presence to getting 1/5th of their is sales … Read the rest

Annual Review – Ajanta Pharma 2019

To get yourself familiar with Ajanta Pharma read my opening post about the company. In last year review sent to premium subscribers, we had projected below

There was steep degrowth in Africa Institutional business and Branded generics, Also in Asia, they underperformed their own expectations resulting in modest growth. India business outperformed their own expectations (even mine) and USA business did very well too.

Three reds meant that they had their first topline decline in the last 15 years. The beauty of doing predictions is to get humbled very quickly in markets. In my 2017 review send to subscribers I had pasted projections from brokerage houses in the end note, I am reproducing them below

What was not baked in estimates was visible in price, The PE derating clearly told in advance that market doesn’t expect company do well and as it happens many times price discounts the performance for next 24-36 months in advance

 

Having spent enough time on past lets now review the current year


 

India business

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True Diversification

Why do we add a new security to our portfolio ?
To reduce risk and ensure not all our eggs are in same basket, the underlying thought process is if stock A doesn’t do well at least stock B will provide some returns and compensate for loss if any in stock A
This makes perfect sense if you go by what Harry M. Morkowitz said in 1950’s [emphasis mine]

The investments have different types of risk characteristics, some caused systematic and market related risks and the other called unsystematic or company related risks. Markowitz diversification involves a proper number of securities, not too few or not too many which have no correlation or negative correlation. The proper choice of companies, securities, or assets whose return are not correlated and whose risks are mutually offsetting to reduce the overall risk

It explains why investors invest in diverse spectrum of industries whose fortunes are not tied to each other
However many investors feel discomfort in adding a new company from a similar industry, At least I do. My thinking process is I already own TCS what the use of adding another IT company in the portfolio ? After all the company related … Read the rest

Annual Review – Ajanta Pharma

Firstly pharmaceutical is a space which I have started learning recently (2 years) and therefore it’s obvious that some of inferences that I will make in below review could be wrong

Secondly , Ajanta pharma as a business kept coming to my radar for last 3-4 years but I kept ignoring it due to my limited knowledge in pharma space, its only last year when I did earnings power box analysis and found that this company is in wealth maximising quadrant 2 then I became owner

Ajanta Pharma is a speciality pharmaceutical company engaged in development, manufacture and marketing of quality finished dosages in domestic and international markets.

For someone new a key snapshot to understand company, Keep it handy

Ajanta-1

The company has clear strategy is each of the above markets

  • India, Asia, Africa – Would drive incremental growth (which has been decent for past decade)
  • LATAM & USA – Would drive exponential growth if the management gets its strategy right

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Learn how to Dissect RoE

There is almost a unanimous agreement in investment community that RoE is an important indicator of health of a company, High sustainable ROE implies sustainable competitive advantages and hence investment attractiveness of the company

Sustainable is a key word here so always execute ROE analysis for at least 5 years if not 10 years to arrive at a conclusion

DuPont comes in handy to break down ROE, I will not go into details of DuPont , you can read this article to get yourselves accustomed to DuPont

You can use Tankrich Valuation Tool to do DuPont analysis in 5 mins, post analysis how do you dissect RoE ?

This will be largely dependent on how familiar you are with operations of the company and industry, We will take a case today and see if we can put together a generic framework for dissecting RoE

Friends this is going to be a long post so take out your pen, paper, food and time and lets dig in. The company that we will use as case is Ajanta Pharma

The RoE for last 5 years has been ..

roe-1

Fantastic improving from 16% to 41%

The frame-work that we are going to use … Read the rest

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