Tag: Annual Review

Ajanta Pharma – Pivoting its fortunes

Let me refresh your memory from this 2015 chart on how Ajanta pharma, Granules India and Suven Life Sciences were operating in different sections of the industry

Five years and things have turned on their head in 2020

  • Ajanta Pharma – Started selling in regulated markets
  • Granules – Set upfront retail shop in the US
  • Suven – Has moved into API manufacturing at scale

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each of them had their own niche and slowly build complementary capabilities. Nothing depicts the pivot made by Ajanta pharma better than below chart

 

from no presence to getting 1/5th of their is sales … Read the rest

Suven Life sciences – Demerger to create Value?

Suven Life sciences is a company that I am tracking from 2014 This is what I wrote in 2014 on their optionality

But as you would have seen expecting the company to not to commercialize any R&D work for 18 years would be a real surprise

In 2015, I noted the possibility of monetizing their lead molecule in 2017

SUVN 502. For this molecule, we completed Phase-Ib trials and commenced preparations for the Phase-IIa (POC) trial. We hope to initiate patient trials during the second half of the current year and are hopeful of monetising this molecule post successful completion of the study in fiscal 2017

But few years with the company and I understood that

Drug discovery is a long, hard and uncertain process and putting your odds is as good as throwing a dice. There are far few too many variables to model an outcome

However we also observed that the company is building a different and more sustainable game plan

For a company earning 12-15% ROE and growing at 10-15%, this seems to be fair or even above par, however, we need to be cognizant that Suven is building various verticals that are yet not contributing … Read the rest

Annual Review – Ashiana Housing 2019

My last year review of Ashiana housing can be read here where we concluded that

The company has diversified into different cities but they are significantly dependent on Bhiwadi. Take this, Bhiwadi accounts for

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  • 40% of their current project’s unsold inventory
  • 45% of their future projects saleable area
  • 35% of their Land back

Lets first look at how they did in Bhiwadi, sales improved by 60% clearly showing early sign of recovery. The management in conference call indicated that even though the inventory overhang in Bhiwadi is 9 to 10 years they have performed significantly well … Read the rest

BSE – Heads I win, Tails I don’t lose too much

Established in 1875, BSE Ltd is the oldest stock exchange in Asia and operates the BSE exchange platform (formerly Bombay Stock Exchange). People often refer BSE as a duopoly with NSE being the other player however its a lopsided duopoly with NSE bossing the equity segment. Below is a snapshot of NSE dominance

Source – NSE Presentation

Not only NSE is dominant it is gaining market share due to its network effect.

How did an exchange so prevalent lost its Mojo?

CEO Ashish Chauhan has put it very aptly in his interview with Forbes

The BSE was late to the derivatives game. Typically, one is likely to trade equities at the same exchange where one trades derivatives. So a gap was created. The BSE had basically zero market share in derivatives, currencies, commodities… pretty much everything except a little bit of equities and some initial public offerings (IPOs). The technology wasn’t considered very good. People had pretty much written the BSE off. Why did the NSE become so big? Not on the back of the past but on the back of the new [offerings]. Derivatives played a big role in it.

So there were mainly five issues which the BSE … Read the rest

Annual Review – Ajanta Pharma 2019

To get yourself familiar with Ajanta Pharma read my opening post about the company. In last year review sent to premium subscribers, we had projected below

There was steep degrowth in Africa Institutional business and Branded generics, Also in Asia, they underperformed their own expectations resulting in modest growth. India business outperformed their own expectations (even mine) and USA business did very well too.

Three reds meant that they had their first topline decline in the last 15 years. The beauty of doing predictions is to get humbled very quickly in markets. In my 2017 review send to subscribers I had pasted projections from brokerage houses in the end note, I am reproducing them below

What was not baked in estimates was visible in price, The PE derating clearly told in advance that market doesn’t expect company do well and as it happens many times price discounts the performance for next 24-36 months in advance

 

Having spent enough time on past lets now review the current year

 

India business

During this time, the key ingredient of cheapest cialis onlines in bloodstream and become effective to provide extreme satisfaction to men and women. purchase viagra … Read the rest

Kitex Garments – Earnings Power Updated

Another year gone, Got my hands on Kitex Annual report and updated the Earnings Power Box. Lets look at how the company has fared

Before you proceed, its better you go through this post so that you are familiar with terms used below

kitex-2

The Accrual EPS (or reported EPS) saw an increase of 11% while the Defensive EPS declined by 30% and Enterprising EPS declined by 4%

What led to such a sharp decline in Defensive EPS ?

While the company’s purchase of fixed assets reduced by 80% (INR 7.37 Cr Vs INR 31.7 Cr) the working capital increased by INR 47.7 Cr (Last two years they had reduced their working capex). Most of the additional investment is due to the fact that Accounts receivable has increased by 50% and current liabilities have not kept pace with it. Not sure if  company had a significant change in credit policies.

 

Even with a decline in Defensive EPS, the company continues to be in wealth maximisation quadrant

kitex-3

Some other titbits of from Annual report which I found interesting

  • Last year annual report claimed that there capacity was 5.5 lakhs pieces of infant wear per day, this year it’s called out as
… Read the rest

Periodically review your portfolio

Assessing and reviewing your portfolio is critical to be on top of your positions, While till today I have not found any structured way to go about it, What has helped me to think objectively is to focus on

  • status of key variable of business
  • risks identified
  • buying hypothesis – does it still hold good

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The next question is how often do you review ? 6 months, 12 months , 2 years ? Frankly there is no right answer – But I found 6-8 months is a good period to start with

Below is my simplistic review of two businesses in model portfolio – If would be foolish to buy … Read the rest

Annual Review – Poddar Developers

Reading well detailed annual reports have their own pleasure. Today, post is on annual review of Poddar developers , I have written couple of times on Poddar here and here

Numbers first

Increase in Sales by 47.97% and increase by 156.88% in PAT

The company made allotment of 11,10,900 Equity Shares of Rs. 10/- each fully paid at a premium of Rs. 1115.21/-

Opportunity size is very big, here is extract from AR

The recently released Report of the Technical Group on Urban Housing Shortage (TG-12) (2012-17) has estimated the Housing shortage to be 18.78 million out of which 56.18 per cent is in the economically weaker segments and 39.44 per cent is in the Lower income group categories. As per projections of a report by the McKinsey Global Institute, the housing shortage under business as usual circumstances could go up to 38 million units by 2030

There is a thrust from central govt. as well for affordable housing

 Ministry of Housing & Urban Poverty Alleviation has undertaken studies and extensive consultations with a variety of stakeholders including the private sector, non-governmental sectors, state governments and urban local bodies as well as other Government of India departments as well as

… Read the rest

Annual Review – Ajanta Pharma

Firstly pharmaceutical is a space which I have started learning recently (2 years) and therefore it’s obvious that some of inferences that I will make in below review could be wrong

Secondly , Ajanta pharma as a business kept coming to my radar for last 3-4 years but I kept ignoring it due to my limited knowledge in pharma space, its only last year when I did earnings power box analysis and found that this company is in wealth maximising quadrant 2 then I became owner

Ajanta Pharma is a speciality pharmaceutical company engaged in development, manufacture and marketing of quality finished dosages in domestic and international markets.

For someone new a key snapshot to understand company, Keep it handy

Ajanta-1

The company has clear strategy is each of the above markets

  • India, Asia, Africa – Would drive incremental growth (which has been decent for past decade)
  • LATAM & USA – Would drive exponential growth if the management gets its strategy right

Normally, all of us take part in several activities in our day-to-day life and many of the patients (especially older order cheap levitra age men) were not able to take the semi liquid version of Kamagra pill helped millions … Read the rest