Two years and No returns

My Last year’s review of Ashiana can be read here

It causes symptoms, which cialis brand are very far from the place where the gallbladder was. As per research, intake of aloe vera juice also helps in lowering lipid levels, relieving constipation, cheap levitra uk improving digestion and enhancing skin tone. There are five kinds of renal intrinsic viagra uk cells. The main neurological decision examines some weakness, shortage of reactions, tingling, consumption, aches, waned element, viagra pharmacy and additional warnings which can suggest neurological guidance.

The real estate industry continues to be impacted by oversupply and demand pressure, this graph from their detailed investor presentation points out the fact, The lead indicator which is Area booked continued to be at the same space like last year and realization are flat
The Area Booked, however, is improving from last three quarters and we need to track sustainability of the trend

 

Like all years their annual report is very informative and management is clearly indicating that they are seeing this as an end of a downtrend for real estate markets for their key operating markets . The company has identified Bhiwadi, Jaipur, Gurgaon, Chennai, and Pune as key focus markets. 
… Read the rest

75 hidden gems Article

Recently I wrote an article for special edition of Indian Economy and Investing – 75 Hidden Gems

This is reproduced for you below. I am long on stock not traded in last 90 days

SATIN CREDIT – CASTING AWAY DEMONITISATION DEMONS

Satin Creditcare is a large microfinance company providing collateral free, microcredit facilities to economically active women in both rural and semi-urban areas. Satin Creditcare Network Limited(“Satin”) was conceptualized and founded in 1990 by Mr. HP Singh – a qualified Chartered Accountant with over 25 years of experience in retail finance industry. In around 27 years since its inception, Satin today is India’s second largest MFI (as of Jun 2017) having started its journey with individual microloans to urban shopkeepers. Today, the Company has an established, scalable and a sustainable business model. On a consolidated basis, Satin had an AUM of Rs. 4,493 Crores as on Sep 30, 2017. SCNL offers its clients a variety of loan products under the MFI segment. The company also offers a bouquet of financial products in the Non-MFI segment (comprising of loans to MSMEs), and business correspondent services & similar services to other financial Institutions through TSL, a business correspondent company and an 88% … Read the rest

Thomas Cook – Are sum of parts greater than M-cap

Below is a post based an edited note to Insider Subscribers

***

Thomas Cook (TC) now is a mini holding company which has multiple lines of businesses (a company which has 53 subsidiaries ) – A business analyst’s nightmare

 

Investment in TC is investment in Prem Watsa who has tremendous record of long term wealth creation, although I was not happy when he started a new fund in 2015 to invest in India in parallel to TC, cause at time of acquiring TC he commented that all new investments in India will be via TC however in his recent letter to shareholders he has made it clear that only related business (read travel and hospitality) will be acquired by TC rest would go to Fairfax India as much as possible

Over time Fairfax Financial would prefer to have all of its Indian investments (as far as possible) in Fairfax India with the exception of Thomas Cook and its subsidiaries, Quantum Advisors and ICICI Lombard General Insurance Company Limited.

The management had said that they would not prefer one over another however this year’s chairman’s letter made it clear that non travel business would go Fairfax India way,This fact is … Read the rest

Canfin homes – The out performance continues

Previously I wrote on Canfin homes here

The sustained outperformance was noticed when I was reviewing GRUH and REPCO a few days back

****

GRUH Finance and REPCO homes both had decent year however when compared with Canfin homes there was performance was little subdued, which you will see in detail below

The top line (Loan book growth) was good for both companies including loan mix

Bottom line growth has clearly tapered down to 20s from 30s seen in FY12-14 years, both firms exercised good control on operational costs thereby continuing to reduce cost to income (C/I) ratio , GRUH following HDFC is having industry leading C/I ratio

On Contrary CanFin homes had an another fantastic year

Lending practices were tight with minimal net NPA

GRUH’s return metrics remain best in class however others are closely catching up

Overall both companies had a very decent year. But clearly, now 3 years in a row CanFin homes have outdone its fancied peers

Future variables to track

  • Loan book growth
  • Net NPA

If an individual has difficulty in buying viagra in uk gaining weight because of excessive stress, it will be relieved with this herbal ingredient. Likewise, take it while you are … Read the rest

Forecasting and Reality – Review of Suven Life sciences

I have previously written by Suven Life Science here and here

Reading and learning about Suven Life sciences has been huge learning curve, it has taught me few things

  • Forecasting in excel and actual numbers in real world are two different things, so one should not take their excel skills seriously. If you need a proof just refer my revenue and bottom-line prediction from last few years for Suven
  • Drug discovery is a long , hard and uncertain process and putting your odds is as good as throwing a dice. There are far few too many variables to model an outcome
  • Entrepreneurship is a long term commitment and as Investors, we are so lucky to jump the ship after a poor quarter, not the promoter who many times has put his/her everything on line

Reviewing 2016-17 performance of the company

Firstly numbers and management’s guidance for next year

 

All figures in INR cr except % 2015-2016 2016-2017 Growth 2017-18 E
Base CRAMS [Balancing Figure] 244 253 4% 291
CRAMS Commericial Supplies 0 34 100% 60
Speciality Chemichals 224 224 0% 224
Technichal Services 32 33 3% 33
Revenue From Operations 500 544 9% 608
Other Income 19 21 11%
… Read the rest

Why we get fat and what can we do about it ?

This article is not about investing love reading them go here.

Why I am writing on health on a financial blog – Cause true wealth is of no use without great health

Most of what I am writing below is my interpretation of a book by Gary Taubes Why We Get Fat: And What to Do About It . It’s a must read for breaking myths and our long held untrue beliefs.

What is the first thing that people tell us when they see us becoming fat?

Everyone will tell us to get our running shoes out and start burning those excessive calories. It’s indeed natural to think whatever we have gained can be burned off with increased physical activity.

Incorrect

The science tells us that obesity is ultimately the result of a hormonal imbalance, not a caloric one

as we very likely will work up an appetite

Is it true that we can increase our expenditure of calories, burn an extra 150 calories a day, say, or go from being sedentary to active or from active to very active, without changing our diet—without eating more—and without maybe decreasing the amount of energy we expend in the hours between our

… Read the rest

How I missed Canfin Homes

There is a beautiful passage in Steven Johnson’s Where Good Ideas come from

“Good ideas are like the neo nurture device. They are, inevitably constrained by the parts and skills that surround them. We have a natural tendency to romanticize breakthrough innovations, imagining momentous ideas transcending their surroundings…… We like to think of our ideas as $40,000 incubators direct from factory, but in reality they have been cobbled together with spare parts that happened to be sitting in the garage.”

This passage has a striking resemblance to how I look for new companies to invest, trying hard to find a hidden jewel in an obscure corner outside BSE 500 without realizing that many of them are tangled in many spreadsheets stored on my PC

Let me run you past one such case last year I was reviewing one of my existing positions GRUH Finance and unlike previous years I wanted to review GRUH not only in comparison to itself but to its peers – REPCO and Canfin homes. The reason for picking these two Housing Finance Companies  was

  • I also had REPCO in my portfolio so I will kill two reviews in a single seating 🙂
  • Loan book size
… Read the rest

Relying on Expert opinions

In general on this blog, I have not been very kind to stock market experts ( pundits,opinion baazs), you can read through some of my previous outbursts here

In late 1980s, psychologist Philip Tetlock began an important research projects of the past three decades, studying how experts make predictions, who gets things right, and who gets things wrong. His inspiration came from watching experts predict the future of the Soviet Union — an event that very, very few got right. Notably, most of those who misjudged the event wouldn’t even admit that they got it wrong. The book draws one big conclusion: Most expert predictions are the equivalent of random guesses.

The stock market is a perfect to see this unfolding every day, In this post I am showing you just one example but the place is full of such pundits

Last year around April 2016, India’s first e-commerce company was planning to list on Indian bourses (previously makemytrip and others have also listed but overseas) , The overwhelming opinion  from expert reviewers of IPO was that issue from Infibeam was untouchable

Let’s look at some of them

Some claimed, Infibeam is unsuitable for retail investors

infibeam -1

more

infibeam - 2

While few pointed … Read the rest

Actions speak louder than words !

In a recent interview with Guru Focus ,value investor Rohit Chauhan pointed out very important points regarding approaching equity investing. One of the points which stood out for me was below [emphasis mine]

12. Before making an investment, what kind of research do you do and where do you go for the information? Do you talk to management?

I follow the usual process of reading up on the last 10 years of financial statements and annual reports. In addition to that, I also try to understand the economics of the industry and competitive landscape. Finally I try to work through my checklist to analyze the idea from as many view points as possible.

I do not depend on talking directly with the management as much and base my decision more on what the management has shared in the conference calls and how they executed the plans.

As investors we are susceptible to falling for compelling stories created by management & media therefore often are unable to do an unbiased assessment of a an investment situation. This can lead to less than optimum investing outcomes. It pays to watch what management is doing than what they are talking.

As social

… Read the rest

Book review: How to Fail at Almost Everything and Still Win Big

Over last fortnight I happened to read a fantastic book by Scott Adams – How to Fail at Almost Everything and Still Win Big: Kind of the Story of My Life

This book has so much wisdom that I would recommend you to read at least once every year or two, moreover Scott has kept narrative so simple and contextual that you don’t lose interest . The book covers a variety of topics – Success factors , Ability to learn from failures , Grit , Affirmations, Right diet, Career Advice , Skills to acquire and so on and so forth. I will try to elucidate on themes that nudged me in my first read.

Become system oriented rather than goal oriented –  The idea that one should have a system instead of a goals.  How these two are different for example

System: Remaining healthy by doing daily exercise is a system

Goal : Planning to lose 20 pounds in next 6 months is goal

Why one is better than other

Goal-oriented people exist in a state of continuous presuccess failure at best, and permanent failure at worst if things never work out. Systems people succeed every time they apply their

… Read the rest