Tag: Value investing

Few takeaways from study of wide moat companies

Wide Moat companies(1)

I started with wide moat ratings of morningstar and selected 10 companies randomly as below

Asian Paints Bajaj Auto Colgate India Dabur Cummins HUL Infosys ITC Nestle Lupin

Then I collected 10 year data on above companies from 2005 to 2014, collecting 10 year data will ensure that you can avoid sampling errors although I want to clearly point that selecting 10 companies and trying to interpret patterns in itself will have sampling errors

If you have gone through our previous posts on competitive analysis , ROE dissection or Earnings framework you know I like to understand a concept through key metrics and examples , I have selected 3 important metrics and plotted on how have they performed for 10 companies in last 10 years

Lets take them one by one

Understand this first  you get rated as improved if a particular company is able to beat its own average over last 10 years in year 2014. So if year 2014 was extremely bad/good year for the company than data interpretation below could be erroneous

Gross Margin – My reason to select – this indicates pricing power

Wide-1

8 out 10 companies were able to improve their gross margins

Cash … Read the rest

Why I maintain a free subscriber only Model Portfolio ?

After my last monthly newsletter to blog readers, I got few questions on Model Portfolio. I am penning this post to answer most of those broad questions that came my way

What is Model portfolio ?

Model portfolio is a collection of businesses at a point in time which in my humble opinion has ability to deliver superior returns over a three to five year time frame over benchmark indices (mid cap / small cap). The operating word here is ‘ability’ (not promise)

Investors should very carefully decide his/her risk appetite and the returns expectations, as not everyone’s situations is same. As a prudent investor first

  • Determine your willingness to take risk  – Are you an emotionally a person who can handle risk ?
  • Ability to take risk – Does you economic situation allows you take risk by investing in equity

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How to avoid weapons of influence in investing ?

Robert B Cialdini’s Influence: The psychology of persuasion is a must read for any budding investor and thinker. In this best seller he describes six weapons of influence that are often used by marketers/smart people / organisation to stir an automatic reaction from subject many a times to the benefit of the user of weapon

What are these weapons and how we should avoid them in investing when they are used against us ?

We avoid them by learning about them, Let’s start

Reciprocation – The rule of reciprocation says we should try to repay, in kind , what another person has provided for us . Seems so obvious if someone invites you for a dinner at home you do so by inviting other person to your home .

In investing how can someone trick you ? I have experienced such situations let me throw an example at you

Complete stranger on Twitter : Hi, How are you ? I have just read “Evaluating Moats through Floats” on Tankrich and have found it really helpful, I have some more question for you ?

Me : Thank you , please let me know what questions you have.

Stranger :

… Read the rest

How to Value Stocks using Benjamin Graham style

Beloved readers,

Presenting the first tool from Tankrich – Benjamin Graham stock value calculator.

Here is the story….

Circa 2010

Five classmates decided to put Benjamin Graham’s teaching into  mathematical calculation to understand if a stock is overvalued or undervalued for their class presentation in MBA . What followed was days of research and a collaborative effort to come with a simplified model which is easy to use and understand.

We did it – 10/10 on presentation and a pat on back  from one of the most loved professors at school for bringing theory into practice.

Circa 2014

Retail investors don’t often get exposed to time less  principles of Benjamin Graham, so I thought why not use my class project and turn that into a online stock value calculator. Some of the key features of this calculator

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Is predicting winners in stock markets possible ?

In our last few posts we have discussed about India’s fastest and most consistent wealth creators in last decade. In today’s post we back test stock predictions made by Motilal Oswal annual wealth studies.

I have picked years  2006 -10 for our analysis so that we can have at least 3 years of stock performance data available for latest predictions. In addition to this for the sake of consistency I have kept Nifty and CNX Nifty midcap as a benchmark indexes to compare performances for all stock predictions.  Each year the studies had a value investing theme simplified into a mathematical model to identify prospective investments. Lets look at those predictions and how have they fared over years.

 2006 – The value investing theme was favorable terms of trade, the study states that a company enjoys favourable ”terms of trade” if its debtors are lower than its creditors. So favorable terms of trade could result in zero or even negative working capital. Whereas adverse terms of trade could mean very high working capital requirements, making the business unprofitable.

The above explanation was converted into a mathematical model and three stocks were identified with favorable terms of trade- HPCL, … Read the rest